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Wednesday, May 04, 2005

The Last Hand: Redux

Okay. I thought I'd go over a little process on how that final hand played out last night and how it may have been played differently and even if it could have acheived a different outcome.

The game is loose-aggressive, though not all the players are. In my limited experience with most of them here's what I know:

Uncle Rob: Very loose pre-flop to go with how the games at the Warehouse are played. Generally solid play post-flop but not afraid to bluff.

Jack (Don): He is a very solid player. The first time I went to play at the Warehouse Moe was giving me some low down on the players. He told me that if Jack is betting hard, he has a hand. I've found that to be pretty universally true.

Myself: I'm a pretty tight player. At least that's the image I try very hard to cultivate. I can be very agressive however and, thankfully, most of these players haven't caught on to how often I'm bluffing.

Rob and Don were in the blinds and Bill, Eric and I all limped in for $.50. Rob pot bet to make it $2 total to go and only Don and I joined him for the flop.

My hands is 8h4h5d6h and the pot is $6.

Flop comes down 9c8c4s.

Rob leads out for $3, Don calls and I call. The pot is now $15.

I've definitely got Rob on the club draw and I'm not sure whether or not to place Don on a straight or club draw or both.

Turn card is the Ah. Rob checks, Don checks and I check...

Now I definitely have Rob on the club draw as his bet on the flop didn't move anyone so he has to put us on actually having a piece of the board when he has to decide what to do on fourth street. Don's check leads me to believe that he's drawing as well. Here's where my post-game analysis leads me to believe I could have acted differently.

After both players check to me I can make a strong bet. I can certainly believe that my two pair are the best hand at the moment if they are both drawing. If I make any bet it has to be a pot bet of $15. Rob on the draw would still be getting 3-1 on his money with the club draw and if he calls, Don is getting 4-1 on what I imagine is his draw as well. I'm not convinced that I move Rob off his hand and if Rob calls I think Don still calls because he's getting decent odds and he has what he must consider the strongest hand showing with two pair.

The river is the 4c. Rob immediately asks if it was a club. Not sure if he couldn't actually see the card or not, but he has to be on the club draw, and probably a weaker one since he's basically announcing that he made it. He makes a pot bet of $15 which Don immediately pots back at him, making it $60 to go. I'm a little surprised by that as I didn't expect Don to make that move. So now I've got him on the nut club flush or a full house. I think for about twenty seconds before I pot it again, which puts me all-in and makes it $111.75 for Don to call.

Rob folds easily and I can tell Don is stressed. He thinks for about three minutes before finally making the call. I give a crying question, "Do you have clubs?" When he says no I know I am beat. I ask him what boat he has and he shows me fours full of nines to kill my fours full of eights.

So if I pot bet on the turn and they both call, and then follow through with the same river action I still don't think I acheive a different result. The pot would have been $60 going to the river assuming they both call. I imagine that Rob leads out for somewhere in the range of $25-40 and then Don pots himself all-in. I can't see myself laying down my full house so I call and lose.

The ideal situation would be to represent a stronger hand on the turn by betting such that when Don pots on the river and re-raise him he has to consider that I might have already made a set either with the Aces or the Eights and my boat is considerably stronger than his.

But I still don't see him laying down his full house, so alas I don't reasonably believe a different outcome could have been acheived.

Love to hear some other people's thoughts on this though.

Comments:
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