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Friday, March 25, 2005

EV and the Problem with Aces and Maniacs

Haven't played a whole lot the last few days other than sneaking in a few tournaments. Taught my parents and some other close friends of the family how to play NL and Limit Hold'em yesterday, let me just say, that was an adventure. My mother has an uncanny knack for making her 84 offsuit turn into a winning hand every single time. Any two cards, any two cards will do...

So the first tourney I played last night was the $20 midnight show on FTP. As seems to be the usual routine lately, I was put on the table with Sycophant, a very solid player who the last five times we've played each other has caught monster pairs everytime I'm in the big blind. Well it turns out that most of the rest of this table are maniacs. Early on I got KJ offsuit under the gun, raised it up 3x and got a call from a guy in middle position who called with Q7 diamonds. Naturally the flop came Jack high with two diamonds and he made it on the turn. With most of my money gone I waited patiently and actually got tripled up as a reward. So back up to T1400 and watching more maniac play go down. One guy went all in for 900 chips with a pair of nines and got called by a guy with A2 clubs. As should be guessed, he caught his Ace.

A few hands later I get A10 suited under the gun and raise to 3x (240 chips). Two spots down, reraised to 450 and the guy after him calls the 450. With all that out there I had to take a flop so I called. Flop came ten high. This part will lead into the title of today's discussion. I didn't think either of them had pocket aces, but I did figure at least one of them to have QQ or KK and the other could have AK the way the table had been playing. I had T1000 left with 2100 already in the pot. I knew both would call if I went all-in, so the pot was laying 5 to 1 for me. If I had everything read correctly I had about five outs left in the deck, and with a full ring at the table my odds in the deck were about 5.5 to 1.

I went all-in and soon saw I was up against QQ and KK. I was behind, but still had plenty of chances with two cards to come. Unfortunately there was no joy in Mudville and I got knocked out. This play was absolutely a gamble, as most situations with a high expected value (EV) tend to be, but the odds were good enough to take a chance on a pot that would have put me in the top five. Of course everyone one of the maniacs was going nuts about it, arguing about how I could make a call with 10's only, but in the long run it's the ability to make informed decisions that will let me beat them and I know that it wasn't a terrible play.

Then I decided to try a tourney on Paradise Poker, a new site I signed up for. An old friend of a friend of mine who is basically a pro now plays there pretty regularly. I've got some good stories about him that I'll save for another post down the road. The site is not too bad overall but the table interface leaves a lot to be desired. I do like the layout of their tournament lobbies though, provide a lot of good information about what's going on with the rest of the tables. In any event, I signed up for a $25 NL tourney that got 201 players. I was on absolute FIRE coming out of the gate in this thing. I'm making two pair, straights, flushes, top pair on five consecutive hands and was up to T3500. I also flopped a full house in there but got no action. Then I got KQ offsuit in middle position, raised it up 3x and decided to trade on my table image. I had one caller and the flop came with a bunch of blanks so I led out for a pot bet of 300 which he called. The turn was an Ace. I went ahead and pot bet again for 900 and he thought about it and thought about it before finally calling right before his time expired. Another blank came on the river and I loaded up my third shell and fired another 500 at the pot which put him all-in. He calls and turns over A4 offsuit. Brutal. A little while later I got pocket 3's and called a raise from a guy I figured was on big slick. Flop came with blanks so I moved in for my last 400 chips and he called, bingo I was right, AK suited. Turn was no help and then the unmerciful Ace came out and I was done.

Here's what I see more and more and more of online, overvaluing the Ace. The first guy calling me with A4 offsuit either made an incredible read (something I'm not giving him credit for based on his play the rest of the hour I saw) or just decided Aces are goob and I'm going to play it even though this guy most likely has a better Ace than I do. The second guy qualifies as an even bigger donk. An ace is only a high card, people, it alone does not beat a pair... ANY pair. Far too often I see people take on short stacks incorrectly. If I had pushed all-in preflop for my 675 chips, calling with AK suited is not such a terrible play. Most online players with a short stack will push with any decent painted cards or big Ace. But when they call a raise and then go all-in after the flop, more credence may want to be given to their hand when you merely have an Ace high.

Just my two cents on something to think about next time you're playing.

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